How jackpots affect EV in video poker

[givememyleg]

My local casino offers Jacks or Better but it's all 6/5 unless you play $5 per credit, and even then it's only 8/6.

They also offer 10 Double Double Bonus machines that are linked with a royal flush jackpot. The jackpot starts at the standard 4,000 credits and increases based on amounts bet until it's hit. Obviously the higher the jackpot amount, the higher the EV of these machines, but I wanted to run the numbers to find out how much the jackpot affects the payout.

The standard return is terrible without the jackpot since they lower the full house payout to 7 and flush to 5, so it's only 95.7120%. However, the jackpot often increases to 6,000+ credits and have seen it high as ~8,000 which is double the standard payout.



RF Payout
EV of Payout
EV Increase
Overall EV Increase


4,000
95.712%
-
-


4,500
95.9693%
0.2573%
0.2573%


5,000
96.2440%
0.2747%
0.5320%


5,500
96.5276%
0.2836%
0.8156%


6,000
96.8140%
0.2864%
1.1020%


6,500
97.1015%
0.2875%
1.3895%


7,000
97.3911%
0.2896%
1.6791%


7,500
97.6855%
0.2944%
1.9735%


8,000
97.9891%
0.3036%
2.2771%




So if the jackpot reaches 8,000 credits, the EV increases by 2.2771%, and brings the EV at these machines to 97.9891% - still not great, but much improved.

If I were better at math I'd try to determine if there is a standard rate the EV increases per credit, but as a general rule of thumb it looks like every 1,000 credits increases the EV about .55%. The higher the jackpot, the higher the increase.

I've also heard of other casinos offering similar jackpots for Jacks or Better, so decided to run the numbers on 9/6:



RF Payout
EV of Payout
EV Increase
Overall EV Increase


4,000
99.5439%
-
-


5,000
100.0670%
0.5231%
0.5231%


6,000
100.6513%
0.5843%
1.1074%


7,000
101.2548%
0.6035%
1.7109%


8,000
101.8635%
0.6087%
2.3196%



So the increase was even slightly better. Now if only my casino offered a 9/6 jackpot!

[jack7777]

I have run into the same thing. It's great to be savvy enough to know how to check odds and play. It sucks to not have available anything but rip off machines. I was just at a casino that had bad odds on everything and I lost. I wonder if there is any connection?

[RoyalFlush]

Yeah, there's definitely a connection between bad odds and losing.

The jackpot amount is key.

[jack7777]

Yeah, there's definitely a connection between bad odds and losing.

The jackpot amount is key.The jackpot is 4000 coins. So are you saying playing a 8/5 is okay? JOB? I guess if that is all you can get. This place only paid that on the $1 machine, so it's $5 per spin to get the top odds. Their >25 machines were 7/5.

[jack7777]

What about the multi-hand machines? Should the same JP rules apply on a 10 or 52 hand machine? I guess I am answering my own question. If you are playing .50 per hand, each hand should pay the same top odds.

I got started playing VP to get points. I was in a high limit section. First one machine hit $4000. Then fifteen minutes later the player beside him hit $4000. About 20 minutes later the guy had moved over to the other side of her and hit for $2000. They were playing multi-game machines. I was playing the $5 machine, one coin. I won a little, not a lot. The next day I went into the same area and a guy was sitting at the machine next to the one I was playing the night before. He was waiting for a $50,000.00 payout. I imagine he was playing $25 five coins.

[RoyalFlush]

The jackpot is 4000 coins. So are you saying playing a 8/5 is okay? JOB? I guess if that is all you can get. This place only paid that on the $1 machine, so it's $5 per spin to get the top odds. Their >25 machines were 7/5.

No, 8/5 is not good and 7/5 is even worse. Per http://www.videopokertrainer.org/jacks-or-better.php, 9/6 with 4k for 5 coins is 99.5% which is what we want. It shows that 8/5 with 4k for 5 coins drops way down to 97.3% which is not good.

[RoyalFlush]

Yeah, we want 9/6 on multi machines too.

[givememyleg]

A lot of this discussion comes down to your own personal choice and gambling tolerance. It's great to be educated on which pay tables pay the best so you can make informed decisions at the casino. However, if the casino you're at doesn't offer 9/6 Jacks or Better on any machine, it's up to you if you want to play.

For example, I still play the Double Double Bonus machines from my first reply, even though the EV is way below what you may find at other casinos. But it's the best I can find at that specific casino. They actually offer machines that are worse. So it's more than finding the absolute best pay table, it's more about finding the best pay table offered at the casino you're at. Then you can decide for yourself if you want to play.

I know that I'm losing money in the long run when I play a machine with a expected return of 96.8140%, but it's still fun for me and the EV isn't as bad as slots or some of the table games. So while I'm waiting for the poker room to open, I'm comfortable putting a few hundred in while drinking beer.

This doens't apply online of course since you have basically unlimited choices. No reason to play 8/5 when a different site (like Bovada (https://casinointellect.com/go/bovadacasino/)) offers 9/6.

[givememyleg]

What about the multi-hand machines? Should the same JP rules apply on a 10 or 52 hand machine? I guess I am answering my own question. If you are playing .50 per hand, each hand should pay the same top odds.

Yeah, the same EV and rules apply to multi-hand machines. However, you will almost certainly not find any multi-hand machine that offers top pay tables. In my experience, all multi-hand machines will offer much lower payouts due to their high variance. The casino doesn't want to offer a 99.5% return on a machine that allows the user to play 100 hands at once.


I got started playing VP to get points. I was in a high limit section. First one machine hit $4000. Then fifteen minutes later the player beside him hit $4000. About 20 minutes later the guy had moved over to the other side of her and hit for $2000. They were playing multi-game machines. I was playing the $5 machine, one coin. I won a little, not a lot. The next day I went into the same area and a guy was sitting at the machine next to the one I was playing the night before. He was waiting for a $50,000.00 payout. I imagine he was playing $25 five coins

Sounds like a fun night. ;)

Yeah, multi-hand has a much higher variance than single hand meaning your wins or losses are much greater on every spin. It's technically possible to be dealt a royal flush and win 4,000 credits on all 100 hands - although highly highly improbable. The odds are still exactly the same.

I would definitely play multi-hand if the pay tables were equal to the single hand machines, but that just hasn't been the case anywhere I've played.